A very, very, very, very simple statistics lesson

Warning: This essay is written in hopes of helping some people who pooh-pooh the notion of “global warming,” or are against wearing a mask during a pandemic, move toward rethinking their position. If you are in either camp and are not at all open to the possibility of changing your views no matter what you might hear, do not read this.

First, let me tell you just one little thing about me. I am married and have been for 47.1 years, and working hard to make it to 48, to the loveliest person. Always thinking of others. Reads the bible every day, plus about four other daily devotionals. I wish you knew her. You’d really like her.

OK. On to statistics.

Most of us are for literacy. Woohoo, reading and writing – all for it. But also important is numeracy, “the ability to understand and work with numbers.” Clearly, it is important that we understand simple arithmetic. “I’ll sell you one lottery ticket for $5 or five lottery tickets for $30.” “Ooh, I want five lottery tickets!”

Moving up in the numeracy world, sometimes it can be important to our well-being to understand percentages. So, “Johnny is at the 98th percentile in obesity.” “Wow, 98?! Sounds like an A+. That’s m’ boy!”

Or, slightly more complicated (but this will be easy, trust me!), is the following scenario. Your boss says “Times are tight, we are asking everyone to take a 50% pay cut this month. But then starting next month everyone will get a 75% raise.” That sounds pretty good, right? “I’m with ya, boss!” But wait. Let’s say you make, $2,000 per month. (“Hey, I’m strugglin’ to bring in $2K a month and you want me to spend time thinking about statistics?” Hang on – this could help you someday!) OK, so, with your 50% pay cut this month you’re gonna make just $1000. Dang. But boss promised you a 75% raise! So, starting next month you make . . . um, $1000, times 75%, is $750, so now you’re gonna be making just $1750, still less than you had worked your way up to! Dang. The “base salary” changed so that “75% raise” wasn’t so hot after all.

But what I really want to teach, today, is the importance of averages. I know you already understand averages. On your grocery shelf, you see that if you buy the large, family-size box of Tide you pay only an average of 5.2 cents per ounce, whereas if you buy that little dorm-room box you pay an average of 8.7 cents per ounce. And Ted Williams’s 1941 batting average of .406 meant that he got a hit a little over four times for each 10 times he had an at-bat, on the average. Averages, you got this.

But when academics (what a weird group, eh?) talk about a group of numbers (they’d call it a “distribution” of numbers – they are so weird!) they talk not only about averages but also about “variance” or “spread.” Here, let me show you why. Let’s say some guy has a big ol’ bag of gold coins and invites you to reach your hand down in there and get one to keep for yourself. He says the coins average $5 apiece in value. In fact, EVERY coin is worth $5. (Ha – very little “variance,” or “spread” in this “distribution” of values! In fact, zero variance.) Now, our guy has a second bag of gold coins, that also have an average value of $5. But in this bag are 99 $1 gold coins, and one gold coin worth $401.

So, from which bag would you draw your one gift coin? Well, it depends on your personality. If you’re a sure-thing kinda person, you’d pick bag #1. If you’re a “let’s go for it” type, you’d probably reach your hand down into bag #2. Frankly, I don’t care. But the point is while “average” is an important statistic, so is the consideration of “spread.” (If you want to engage in a fun conversation on “standard deviation,” and are having insomnia issues, give me a call.) I hope you get the $401 coin!

So, I think you’ll agree with me when I say “men are taller than women.” This statement means ON THE AVERAGE men are taller than women. That doesn’t mean that every man is taller than every woman. In the case of “elephants weigh more than ants,” it is true all the dang time. Every living, breathing elephant is heavier than every living ant. Even though some women are taller than some men, you aren’t gonna challenge me if I say “men are taller than women.”

Now. At least 97% of well-educated environmental scientists say the world is getting warmer. And that warming is having deleterious effects on some people’s lives and promises to have more such. Well, just because you were cold one day last January, even if you were colder than you have ever been in your whole life, even colder than that time you went camping and didn’t take a coat and that norther swooped through . . . your experience does not mean that there is no global warming. ON THE AVERAGE, days and years are warmer than they used to be. And that is no bueno for lots of people and lots of animals on this planet and deserves our attention and creativity and cooperation. As a society of people who must live together. That is NOT to minimize how cold you were that night, camping, or that day last January. That sucked! That was your reality, that one night and that one day. But still, the world is getting warmer. On the average.

And so with COVID-19. Most people don’t die. ON THE AVERAGE symptoms are mild. Maybe you had it. Maybe your friend tested positive even though she never showed any symptoms. And you, and she, are just fine. Well, whoop-ti-phreakin’-do. Even if your case was mild, even if you are a man who is taller than his wife, even if you were so cold one day last winter that you thought you were gonna die, that does NOT mean that your granny, or your kid, or your favorite doctor or nurse, will have a relatively mild case if you spread it.

See? It’s not all about you. You – you’re WAY above average. But when you look at all the numbers, when you consider the “variance,” when you look at the mortuary trucks being brought into Texas, when you read that 85 infants in one Texas county have tested positive, when you see the numbers of people who have died (WAY more than “with the usual flu,” on the average), then, won’t you agree that you should wear a damn mask?

But wait! There was this one person, one time, who had asthma and COPD and he almost died when he wore a mask? Yeah, but in the vast majority of cases masks do absolutely no harm. See approximately 500,000 surgeons and surgical nurses, worldwide, who continue to ply their trade with no adverse effects. ON THE AVERAGE, masks do no harm, and, most importantly, they reduce the chances that my wife dies. You remember my wife? Beautiful, caring Christian woman. So, even if there is no one in your life that you love, will you please wear a mask if you go out? I really love my wife and would hate to lose her because of the choice you make.